· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Imisli FK and 1.73 for Sumqayıt, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Sumqayıt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sumqayıt win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imisli FK home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sumqayıt away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sumqayıt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Imisli FK and 1.73 for Sumqayıt, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
Sumqayıt
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sumqayıt win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.