Estadio Banco De Guayaquil · Referee Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano · Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.13 for Aucas, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente del Valle win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente del Valle home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aucas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.13 for Aucas, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Independiente del Valle
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)
Aucas
- 2026-09-19T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad Catolica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertad · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 23 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 31 | 10 | 3 | 18 | -14 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 31 | 6 | 6 | 19 | -24 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente del Valle win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.