Stadio Ernesto Breda · Referee M. Pasculli · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Inter Milano W vs Parma W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Inter Milano W and 0.65 for Parma W, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Inter Milano W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Milano W win
71.8% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter Milano W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Parma W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Milano W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Inter Milano W and 0.65 for Parma W, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.1%
- 1–013.2%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Inter Milano W
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Häcken W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 3-1 (W)
Parma W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Roma W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Ternana W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Como W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Juventus W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | AC Milan W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Milano W win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.