Red Star Stadium · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Irtysh Omsk vs Zenit 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Irtysh Omsk and 2.83 for Zenit 2, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Zenit 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zenit 2 win
83.1% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Irtysh Omsk home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit 2 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zenit 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 5% / 12% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Irtysh Omsk and 2.83 for Zenit 2, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.0%
- 0–312.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–48.7%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Irtysh Omsk
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tyumen · 0-5 (L)
Zenit 2
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Stavropol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Amkar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tyumen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh Omsk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zenit 2 win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.