· Analysis updated 18:58 UTC
Korona Kielce U19 vs Górnik Zabrze U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Korona Kielce U19 and 2.03 for Górnik Zabrze U19, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Górnik Zabrze U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Górnik Zabrze U19 win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korona Kielce U19 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Górnik Zabrze U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Górnik Zabrze U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 28% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Korona Kielce U19 and 2.03 for Górnik Zabrze U19, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.7%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Korona Kielce U19
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Escola Varsovia U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa U19 · 0-5 (L)
Górnik Zabrze U19
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław U19 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Central Youth League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia U19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Arkonia U19 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Lech Poznań U19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce U19 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Górnik Zabrze U19 win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.