· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
La Virgen del Camino vs Mirandés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for La Virgen del Camino and 0.58 for Mirandés II, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives La Virgen del Camino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Virgen del Camino win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Virgen del Camino home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mirandés II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Virgen del Camino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 30% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for La Virgen del Camino and 0.58 for Mirandés II, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 0–016.3%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
La Virgen del Camino
- 2026-10-24T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Mirandés II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guijuelo · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bembibre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cristo Atlético · 0-1 (L)
Mirandés II
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | UD Santa Marta | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Palencia CF | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Bembibre | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mansillés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Arandina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Almazán | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Turégano | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Calasanz de Soria | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Virgen del Camino win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.