F. Ball Community Stadium · Analysis updated 00:47 UTC
Leek Town vs Whitby Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Leek Town and 0.98 for Whitby Town, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Leek Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Leek Town to Win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–19.1%
Why the model likes this
Leek Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Whitby Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leek Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Leek Town and 0.98 for Whitby Town, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Leek Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs United of Manchester · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitby Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Runcorn Linnets · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stalybridge Celtic · 1-1 (D)
Whitby Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leek Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bridlington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cleethorpes Town · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ashton United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | AFC Emley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.