· Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Los Garres vs Águilas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Los Garres and 1.25 for Águilas II, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Águilas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Los Garres home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Águilas II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Águilas II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Los Garres and 1.25 for Águilas II, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Los Garres
- 2025-10-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manises · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Manises · 0-2 (L)
- 2022-05-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 1-3 (L)
- 2022-04-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs UD Caravaca · 2-3 (L)
Águilas II
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Molinense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bala Azul · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cotillas CD · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | San Javier | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Unión Molinense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Santa Cruz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Alcantarilla | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Águilas II | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Atlético Pulpileño | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Bala Azul | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Olímpico Totana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Los Garres | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Cartagena LU II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Balsicas Atlético | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Bullas Deportivo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Algar | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.