Sirous Ghayeghran Stadium · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Malavan vs Tractor Sazi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Malavan and 1.05 for Tractor Sazi, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Tractor Sazi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tractor Sazi win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malavan home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tractor Sazi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tractor Sazi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 17% / 34% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Malavan and 1.05 for Tractor Sazi, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.3%
- 0–021.2%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.6%
Recent form
Malavan
- 2026-09-07T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Persepolis FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fajr Sepasi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 2-1 (W)
Tractor Sazi
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Gol Gohar | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Chadormalu SC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | ZOB Ahan | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tractor Sazi win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.