· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Marchamalo vs Socuéllamos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Marchamalo and 0.92 for Socuéllamos, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Marchamalo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Marchamalo win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marchamalo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Socuéllamos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marchamalo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Marchamalo and 0.92 for Socuéllamos, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Marchamalo
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)
Socuéllamos
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrijos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Illescas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Toledo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | CD Villa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Almansa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Tarancón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marchamalo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | San Clemente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Noblejas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Quintanar del Rey | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | La Solana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Villarrubia | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marchamalo win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.