· Analysis updated 11:46 UTC
Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Mayak Sarny and 1.38 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives FC Kharkiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Kharkiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Mayak Sarny and 1.38 for FC Kharkiv, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Mayak Sarny
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bazys · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Poltava · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
FC Kharkiv
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.