Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Merani Martvili vs Shturmi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Merani Martvili and 1.48 for Shturmi, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Shturmi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Merani Martvili home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shturmi away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Merani Martvili
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samtredia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragvi Dusheti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 1-2 (L)
Shturmi
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragvi Dusheti · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Merani Martvili 1-2 Shturmi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2026-05-06T12:00:00.000Z · Merani Martvili 0-0 Shturmi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Merani Martvili 0-0 Shturmi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2024-12-16T09:00:00.000Z · Merani Martvili 1-1 Shturmi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2024-12-12T15:00:00.000Z · Merani Martvili 1-0 Shturmi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.