Metalourg vs Shortan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Metalourg and 0.92 for Shortan, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Metalourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Metalourg win

56.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shortan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Metalourg and 0.92 for Shortan, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Metalourg win56%

Draw24%

Shortan win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.2%
1–111.3%
2–010.5%
2–19.7%
0–07.1%

Recent form

Metalourg

Shortan

2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kattaqurgon · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BuxDu · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aral	23	18	4	1	35	58
2	Metalourg	23	14	5	4	34	47
3	Shortan	23	14	4	5	17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	12	5	6	16	41
5	Kattaqurgon	23	12	4	7	8	40
6	FarDu	23	11	7	5	6	40
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	23	11	6	6	18	39
8	Lochin	23	11	6	6	8	39
9	Respublika FA	23	8	5	10	-2	29
10	Yaypan	24	7	4	13	-17	25
11	Jayxun	23	7	3	13	-8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	4	1	18	-33	13
13	BuxDu	23	4	1	18	-34	13
14	Qiziriq	24	1	1	22	-48	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Metalourg win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.