Slavutych-Arena · Analysis updated 08:19 UTC
Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Lozova Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya and 1.25 for Lozova, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Metalurh Zaporizhya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Metalurh Zaporizhya win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metalurh Zaporizhya home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalurh Zaporizhya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya and 1.25 for Lozova, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Metalurh Zaporizhya
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlet · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Lozova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Penuel · 2-2 (D)
Lozova
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Lozova | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Poltava 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | Trostianets | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 8 | Oleksandria II | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Penuel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Metalurh Zaporizhya win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.