Ukraine · Druha Liga · Regular Season - 714:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 19 September 2026

LozovaDL

Slavutych-Arena · Analysis updated 23:50 UTC

Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Lozova Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya and 0.97 for Lozova, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Metalurh Zaporizhya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Metalurh Zaporizhya to Win

47.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.42 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Metalurh Zaporizhya win48%
Draw27%
Lozova win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams to score47%

Correct score

  • 1–013.1%
  • 1–112.6%
  • 2–09.3%
  • 0–09.2%
  • 2–19.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Metalurh Zaporizhya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.42 goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya and 0.97 for Lozova, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    Metalurh Zaporizhya to Win is the headline pick at 48% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Metalurh Zaporizhya

    Lozova

    • 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria II · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 0-2 (L)
    • 2025-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.