· Analysis updated 20:53 UTC
Metropolitano vs Santa Catarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Metropolitano and 2.75 for Santa Catarina, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Santa Catarina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Catarina win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Metropolitano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Catarina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Catarina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 19% / 17% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Metropolitano and 2.75 for Santa Catarina, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–37.4%
- 2–26.1%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Metropolitano
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-0 (W)
Santa Catarina
- 2026-10-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitano · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Joinville · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-07-14T18:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 1-1 Santa Catarina (Catarinense - 2)
- 2023-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · Metropolitano 1-2 Santa Catarina (Catarinense - 2)
Copa Santa Catarina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barra | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Nação | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Catarina win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.