· Analysis updated 08:41 UTC
Miedź Legnica II vs Warta Gorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Miedź Legnica II and 1.25 for Warta Gorzów, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Miedź Legnica II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Miedź Legnica II win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Miedź Legnica II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Warta Gorzów away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Miedź Legnica II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Miedź Legnica II and 1.25 for Warta Gorzów, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Miedź Legnica II
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 4-2 (W)
Warta Gorzów
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Miedź Legnica II win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.