· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Mladost Lješkopolje vs Grbalj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mladost Lješkopolje and 1.42 for Grbalj, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Mladost Lješkopolje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost Lješkopolje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grbalj away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Mladost Lješkopolje
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Berane · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zeta · 3-3 (D)
Grbalj
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berane · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 0-0 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 3-2 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2026-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 1-3 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 1-0 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2025-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 1-3 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 3-4 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 1-1 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2024-11-23T12:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 0-1 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 2-2 Grbalj (Second League)
- 2024-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lješkopolje 2-1 Grbalj (Second League)
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.