· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Mladost Ždralovi vs Jadran LP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mladost Ždralovi and 1.16 for Jadran LP, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Jadran LP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost Ždralovi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jadran LP away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Mladost Ždralovi
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dugopolje · 0-0 (D)
Jadran LP
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-17T14:30:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 0-0 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 2-0 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2025-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 2-2 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2024-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 0-1 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2024-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 1-0 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2023-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 0-0 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2023-03-11T14:30:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 2-0 Jadran LP (Second NL)
- 2022-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 1-2 Jadran LP (Second NL)
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.