· Analysis updated 05:53 UTC
Montreal Roses W vs Vancouver Rise W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Montreal Roses W and 1.14 for Vancouver Rise W, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Montreal Roses W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws roughly 29% of the time.
Model pick
Montreal Roses W to Win
71.2% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–07.1%
- 1–16.4%
Why the model likes this
Montreal Roses W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver Rise W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montreal Roses W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 16% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Montreal Roses W and 1.14 for Vancouver Rise W, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Montreal Roses W
- 2026-08-07T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Halifax Tides W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-30T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Rise W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Toronto W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Halifax Tides W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Rise W · 5-1 (W)
Vancouver Rise W
- 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Calgary Wild W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-30T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Montreal Roses W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Halifax Tides W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Toronto W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Calgary Wild W · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Northern Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Roses W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Ottawa Rapid W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Vancouver Rise W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 4 | AFC Toronto W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Halifax Tides W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Calgary Wild W | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.