Monza vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Monza and 1.18 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Monza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Monza or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Monza win44%

Draw26%

Fiorentina win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Monza home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fiorentina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Monza and 1.18 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Monza

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-3 (W)

Fiorentina

2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.