· Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
Municipal Limeño vs Cacahuatique Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Municipal Limeño and 1.08 for Cacahuatique, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Municipal Limeño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Municipal Limeño home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cacahuatique away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Municipal Limeño to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Municipal Limeño and 1.08 for Cacahuatique, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Municipal Limeño
- 2026-10-17T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Inca Aruba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FAS · 1-3 (L)
Cacahuatique
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Inter | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 6 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Alianza | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -16 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.