Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Napoli and 1.37 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Napoli or Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.2%
Why the model likes this
Napoli home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Napoli and 1.37 for Frosinone, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Napoli
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-3 (L)
Frosinone
- 2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.