Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Napoli vs Venezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Napoli and 1.83 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Napoli or Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Why the model likes this
Napoli home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Venezia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Napoli and 1.83 for Venezia, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Napoli
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-3 (L)
Venezia
- 2026-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Modena · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.