Náxara vs Deportivo Alavés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Náxara and 1.30 for Deportivo Alavés II, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Náxara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Náxara win42%

Draw25%

Deportivo Alavés II win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.2%
2–18.9%
0–18.0%
1–27.7%

Why the model likes this

Náxara home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Náxara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Náxara and 1.30 for Deportivo Alavés II, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Náxara

2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Haro Deportivo · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Beasain · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 2-0 (W)

Deportivo Alavés II

2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ejea · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona B	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Terrassa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna II	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Espanyol II	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Reddis	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Peña Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Barbastro	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Utebo	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Tudelano	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Olot	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Náxara	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	SD Logroñés	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Arnedo	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Ebro	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Girona II	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	UD Logroñés II	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Castellón II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.