Ammochostos Stadium · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Nea Salamis vs APEA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Nea Salamis and 1.53 for APEA, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Nea Salamis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nea Salamis home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
APEA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nea Salamis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Nea Salamis and 1.53 for APEA, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Nea Salamis
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
APEA
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartakos Kitiou · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Digenis Morphou · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Doxa · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Latsion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.