· Referee K. Laane · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Nõmme United vs Vaprus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Nõmme United and 1.60 for Vaprus, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Nõmme United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nõmme United win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nõmme United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vaprus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
Nõmme United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
Vaprus
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 3-2 Vaprus (Cup)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 3-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-03-14T10:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 7-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-02-12T11:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-7 Vaprus (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-19T11:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-07-13T11:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 2-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 1-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2020-11-25T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 1-4 Vaprus (Esiliiga A)
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nõmme United win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.