Numancia vs Navalcarnero Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Numancia and 0.68 for Navalcarnero, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Numancia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Numancia win

53.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Numancia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Navalcarnero away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Numancia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Numancia and 0.68 for Navalcarnero, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Numancia win54%

Draw28%

Navalcarnero win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.5%
0–012.7%
2–012.1%
1–112.0%
0–18.7%

Recent form

Numancia

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs A Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 2-0 (W)

Navalcarnero

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2024-02-25T15:30:00.000Z · Numancia 1-1 Navalcarnero (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
2023-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · Numancia 2-0 Navalcarnero (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Numancia win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.