Obolon Arena · Referee Aleksandr Omelchenko · Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.25 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Veres Rivne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Veres Rivne win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Veres Rivne away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Veres Rivne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 18% / 30% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.25 for Veres Rivne, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.7%
- 0–015.7%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.4%
Recent form
Obolon'-Brovar
- 2026-09-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)
Veres Rivne
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-2 Veres Rivne (Premier League)
- 2025-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Veres Rivne (Premier League)
- 2025-07-19T08:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Veres Rivne (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 Veres Rivne (Premier League)
- 2024-11-04T11:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Veres Rivne (Premier League)
- 2024-10-30T16:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 1-2 Veres Rivne (Cup)
- 2024-07-26T08:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 5-2 Veres Rivne (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-06T12:30:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-3 Veres Rivne (Premier League)
- 2023-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Veres Rivne (Premier League)
- 2021-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Veres Rivne (Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Veres Rivne win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.