Estadio de O Couto · Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Ourense CF vs Eibar II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ourense CF and 1.10 for Eibar II, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Ourense CF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ourense CF win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ourense CF home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eibar II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ourense CF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Ourense CF and 1.10 for Eibar II, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.0% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.4% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.8% | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 54.9% | 54.9% | 1.82 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 71.7% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ourense CF
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amorebieta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Marino de Luanco · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basconia · 2-1 (W)
Eibar II
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Ourense CF 0-2 Eibar II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantiños | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Eibar II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Alavés II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Real Oviedo II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Ourense CF | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Gernika | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 9 | Basconia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Compostela | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Llanera | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marino de Luanco | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Coruxo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Arosa | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ourense CF win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.