· Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Palencia CF vs Turégano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Palencia CF and 0.63 for Turégano, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Palencia CF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Palencia CF win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palencia CF home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palencia CF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Palencia CF and 0.63 for Turégano, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.2%
- 2–013.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Palencia CF
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-0 (W)
Turégano
- 2023-11-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-4 (L)
- 2023-10-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 3-1 (W)
- 2022-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Velarde · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palencia CF win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.