Nubank Parque · Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.05 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Palmeiras win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmeiras home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fluminense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Palmeiras and 1.05 for Fluminense, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
Fluminense
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Universitario | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | U. Catolica | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 1 | Corinthians | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Platense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Junior | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 1 | LDU de Quito | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Mirassol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Lanus | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Always Ready | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | UCV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.