· Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Panionios vs PAOK II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Panionios and 0.53 for PAOK II, a combined total of 1.54. That distribution gives Panionios the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Panionios win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panionios home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PAOK II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Panionios to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 35% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Panionios and 0.53 for PAOK II, a combined 1.54 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.7%
- 0–021.4%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–011.0%
Recent form
Panionios
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Pyrgos 1968 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis II · 2-0 (W)
PAOK II
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Larisa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Larisa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Panionios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ellas Syros | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kallithea | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Panthrakikos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Panserraikos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Apollon Pontou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | PAOK II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Pyrgos 1968 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Zakynthos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Panionios win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.