Dimotiko Stadio Serron · Analysis updated 08:04 UTC
Panserraikos vs Ellas Syros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.95 for Ellas Syros, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Ellas Syros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ellas Syros win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panserraikos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ellas Syros away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ellas Syros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Panserraikos and 1.95 for Ellas Syros, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Panserraikos
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Kallithea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis II · 1-0 (W)
Ellas Syros
- 2026-10-05T11:45:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyrgos 1968 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zakynthos · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kallithea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Panionios | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Panserraikos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Larisa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Niki Volos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Ellas Syros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Panthrakikos | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Apollon Pontou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | PAOK II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ellas Syros win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.