· Analysis updated 14:10 UTC
Petrolul Hartiesti vs CSM Targu Jiu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Petrolul Hartiesti and 2.83 for CSM Targu Jiu, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives CSM Targu Jiu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSM Targu Jiu win
82.5% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSM Targu Jiu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSM Targu Jiu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 6% / 12% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Petrolul Hartiesti and 2.83 for CSM Targu Jiu, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
18%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.6%
- 0–311.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–48.4%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Petrolul Hartiesti
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CS U Craiova II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Balș · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-2 (L)
CSM Targu Jiu
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Păușești · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Filiaşi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Filiaşi | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Oltul Curtişoara | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Unirea Bascov | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Păușești | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -32 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSM Targu Jiu win, at 82.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.