· Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Pierikos vs Iraklis Larissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Pierikos and 0.85 for Iraklis Larissa, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Pierikos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pierikos win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pierikos home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iraklis Larissa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pierikos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Pierikos and 0.85 for Iraklis Larissa, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Pierikos
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarakinos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis Larissa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alexandreia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-4 (L)
Iraklis Larissa
- 2023-06-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veria · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-06-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-06-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos II · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2023-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trikala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Anthoupoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Ermis Exochi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Elassona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pierikos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Karitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sarakinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Feraios | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Iraklis Larissa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Digenis Neochori | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pierikos win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.