Pirin Razlog vs Strumska Slava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.85 for Strumska Slava, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Strumska Slava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Strumska Slava to Win

48.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Pirin Razlog win28%

Draw23%

Strumska Slava win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–29.4%
0–17.4%
2–16.9%
0–26.9%

Why the model likes this

Pirin Razlog home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strumska Slava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strumska Slava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.85 for Strumska Slava, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Pirin Razlog

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Germaneya · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oborishte · 1-3 (L)

Strumska Slava

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 2-1 Strumska Slava (Third League - Southwest)
2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-2 Strumska Slava (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rilski Sportist	34	25	5	4	35	80
2	Strumska Slava	34	20	5	9	26	65
3	Slavia Sofia II	34	17	6	11	24	57
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	14	9	11	13	51
5	Kyustendil	34	15	5	14	-3	50
6	CSKA Sofia III	34	15	5	14	6	50
7	Oborishte	34	14	7	13	6	49
8	Balkan Botevgrad	34	13	10	11	5	49
9	Septemvri Sofia II	34	13	9	12	7	48
10	Septemvri Simitli	34	13	8	13	1	47
11	Kostinbrod	34	14	5	15	-4	47
12	Pirin Razlog	34	13	6	15	-5	45
13	Bansko	34	11	11	12	-6	44
14	Slivnishki geroy	34	11	9	14	-9	42
15	Levski Sofia II	34	11	7	16	-14	40
16	Pirin Gotse Delchev	34	11	4	19	-27	37
17	Germaneya	34	4	6	24	-37	18
18	Vitosha Bistritsa	34	11	5	18	-18	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.