Pirin Razlog vs Strumska Slava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.59 for Strumska Slava, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Strumska Slava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Strumska Slava to Win

52.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Pirin Razlog win22%

Draw25%

Strumska Slava win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.7%
1–111.9%
0–210.1%
1–29.5%
0–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Pirin Razlog home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strumska Slava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strumska Slava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 22% / 25% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.59 for Strumska Slava, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Pirin Razlog

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Germaneya · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oborishte · 1-3 (L)

Strumska Slava

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 2-1 Strumska Slava (Third League - Southwest)
2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-2 Strumska Slava (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	2	2	0	0	4	6
2	Septemvri Simitli	2	2	0	0	3	6
3	Septemvri Sofia II	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Bansko	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Strumska Slava	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Belasitsa	2	1	0	1	1	3
7	Levski Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	Botev Ihtiman	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Kostinbrod	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Slavia Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Kyustendil	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Oborishte	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	CSKA Sofia III	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Natsional Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Chavdar Etropole	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Slivnishki geroy	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Balkan Botevgrad	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Pirin Razlog	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.