Myyrmaaen jalkapallostadion · Analysis updated 04:43 UTC
PK-35 Vantaa W vs JyPK W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.28 expected goals for PK-35 Vantaa W and 1.30 for JyPK W, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives PK-35 Vantaa W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PK-35 Vantaa W win
75.4% probability
Expected goals
3.28 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PK-35 Vantaa W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
JyPK W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.2%
- 4–16.4%
- 3–06.0%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
PK-35 Vantaa W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 6-0 (W)
JyPK W
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 Vantaa W · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 Helsinki W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 6-0 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 6-1 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 10-1 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-06-16T15:30:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 1-2 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 3-0 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 1-0 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-06-09T13:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 1-0 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2021-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 5-0 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2021-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 3-1 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2020-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · PK-35 Vantaa W 4-4 JyPK W (Kansallinen Liiga)
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PK-35 Vantaa W win, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.