Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8 · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.82 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Polonia Bytom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polonia Bytom home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lechia Gdansk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Bytom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.82 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Polonia Bytom
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 0-0 (D)
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Ruch Chorzów | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 9 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.