Queretaro U21 vs Toluca U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Queretaro U21 and 1.18 for Toluca U21, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Queretaro U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Queretaro U21 or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Queretaro U21 win44%

Draw26%

Toluca U21 win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Queretaro U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toluca U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Queretaro U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Queretaro U21 and 1.18 for Toluca U21, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Queretaro U21

2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL U21 · 4-0 (W)
2026-07-26T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul U21 · 1-1 (D)

Toluca U21

2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.