· Analysis updated 23:53 UTC
Ravshan vs Khujand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ravshan and 1.13 for Khujand, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Khujand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ravshan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khujand away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Ravshan
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barki Tajik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 2-0 (W)
Khujand
- 2026-09-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istaravshan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T12:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Pomir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T14:30:00.000Z · Ravshan 1-4 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2025-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · Ravshan 2-1 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2025-03-29T10:00:00.000Z · Ravshan 4-1 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2024-11-20T09:30:00.000Z · Ravshan 3-2 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2024-05-25T12:00:00.000Z · Ravshan 1-1 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2023-08-04T12:00:00.000Z · Ravshan 1-1 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2023-04-16T11:30:00.000Z · Ravshan 0-0 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2022-10-31T09:30:00.000Z · Ravshan 3-3 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z · Ravshan 2-3 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2022-05-12T12:00:00.000Z · Ravshan 0-0 Khujand (Vysshaya Liga)
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.