Rīgas FS vs Vestri Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Rīgas FS and 0.99 for Vestri, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Rīgas FS win

68.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.42 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rīgas FS win69%

Draw18%

Vestri win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.7%
2–19.6%
1–08.0%
1–17.9%
3–07.8%

Why the model likes this

Rīgas FS home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vestri away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Rīgas FS and 0.99 for Vestri, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Rīgas FS

2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)

Vestri

2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IR Reykjavik · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.