Estadio La Arboleda · Referee Derlis Benitez · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Rubio NU vs Olimpia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rubio NU and 1.60 for Olimpia, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olimpia win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rubio NU home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Rubio NU and 1.60 for Olimpia, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Rubio NU
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs 2 de Mayo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 0-1 (L)
Olimpia
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olimpia win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.