Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu · Referee Oguzhan Cakir, Türkiye · Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Samsunspor and 2.05 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trabzonspor win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Samsunspor home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Trabzonspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–36.8%
Recent form
Samsunspor
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 2-0 (W)
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T15:45:00.000Z · Samsunspor 0-0 Trabzonspor (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2026-02-07T17:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · Samsunspor 1-1 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 2-2 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-01-04T17:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 3-1 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-01-11T17:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 1-2 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2022-12-21T16:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2020-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2012-01-15T14:00:00.000Z · Samsunspor 0-4 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trabzonspor win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.