Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Samtredia and 0.95 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Samtredia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Samtredia win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Samtredia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aragvi Dusheti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Samtredia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Samtredia and 0.95 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Samtredia
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 3-0 (W)
Aragvi Dusheti
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 53 |
| 2 | Telavi | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Shturmi | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 46 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 38 |
| 7 | Sioni | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 36 |
| 8 | Odishi 1919 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 35 |
| 9 | Kolkheti Poti | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 31 |
| 10 | Gori | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 30 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Samtredia win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.