Estadio La Ciudadela · Analysis updated 00:50 UTC
San Martin Tucuman vs Agropecuario Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for San Martin Tucuman and 1.00 for Agropecuario, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives San Martin Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
San Martin Tucuman or Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martin Tucuman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for San Martin Tucuman and 1.00 for Agropecuario, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
San Martin Tucuman or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
San Martin Tucuman
Agropecuario
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.