Estadio Centenario · Analysis updated 04:12 UTC
Sarmiento Resistencia vs El Linqueño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Sarmiento Resistencia and 0.88 for El Linqueño, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives El Linqueño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.0% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sarmiento Resistencia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
El Linqueño away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Linqueño to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 29% / 35% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Sarmiento Resistencia and 0.88 for El Linqueño, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.7%
- 0–117.2%
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Sarmiento Resistencia
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs El Linqueño · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 0-3 (L)
El Linqueño
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.