· Analysis updated 23:34 UTC
Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Scotland Mabvuku and 1.07 for Petro de Luanda, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Petro de Luanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Scotland Mabvuku home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petro de Luanda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petro de Luanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 31% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Scotland Mabvuku and 1.07 for Petro de Luanda, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.1%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Scotland Mabvuku
- 2026-10-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Petro de Luanda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Agama · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nsingizini Hotspurs · 0-0 (D)
Petro de Luanda
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Songo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Songo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.