· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Sesvete vs Jadran LP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sesvete and 1.43 for Jadran LP, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Jadran LP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sesvete home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jadran LP away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jadran LP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Sesvete and 1.43 for Jadran LP, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Sesvete
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jadran LP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia Zmijavci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs HNK Cibalia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 2-0 (W)
Jadran LP
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.