· Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Shabana vs Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Shabana and 0.72 for Police, a combined total of 1.49. That distribution gives Shabana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shabana home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Police away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 37% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Shabana and 0.72 for Police, a combined 1.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.5%
- 1–017.3%
- 0–116.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Shabana
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sofapaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulinzi Stars · 0-0 (D)
Police
- 2026-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairobi United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Shield Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bandari | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tusker | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | KCB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Mfalme | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Nairobi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Ulinzi Stars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | BB Bread | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Homeboyz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Kariobangi Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | KUTA Collection | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | 3K | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chebaiywa Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.